First, thanks for adding LOESS graphs to German elections. With your recent addition to the Bremen state election, there's a problem with the party colors. Just wanted to point it out in case you've missed it. Gbuvn (talk) 20:38, 4 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Oh no! thank you for pointing it out, will correct it asap! :) CoaxAndBotany (talk) 01:44, 5 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Poland 2050 is incorrectly marked at the beginning of the graph with zeroes. Party didn't exist then and was simply absent in the polls. Could you change that, so Poland 2050 doesn't start from the beginning, like you did HLAS on Slovakia graph? Leo0502 (talk) 16:12, 9 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Ooh thank you for noticing, will correct now!!!! CoaxAndBotany (talk) 18:42, 9 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Hi, firstly thank You for updating the graph and upgrading presentation for this election cycle. I have just some objections, first I don't see reason for "others" to be in the graph, as their are a lot of different minor political parties that would not be able to coalesce ever. Second, it would be good to refer to the elections as the "next" before than "2024", because of the rumors that HDZ could trigger early elections in the autumn of this year. There is no need to changing it right away but please if You could do it after next poll, probably this Sunday. Thanks in advance Opatijac97 (talk) 00:20, 21 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
I don't understand why do you object for "others"? It does not show them as a coalition, but as a informative variable, and it is very interesting as it is important to see the movement (increase or decrease) of support for "other" political parties.
Without the data for "others" the graph gives a false representation that the latest loss of support for SDP and Možemo (from mid 2022 to present day) has been transferred to DomPok and HDZ, when in fact the percentages that the SDP and Možemo have lost have mostly gone to "other" political parties, which can be clearly seen on the graph that includes the "Other".
@CoaxAndBotany can you please restore the graph so that it includes "Other"? Thanks in advance. Tuvixer (talk) 11:41, 22 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
@Tuvixer I will answer on your own example. "Others" are parties from far left to far right so when they receive support it doesn't really shows you how parties are oriented. Summing all together look like they have same importance but in reality most of them cannot even pass the threshold without being in coalition with similar ideologies. Also if you want show where the votes of SDP and Možemo went You should also independently include RF and SD because of their similarities with two before mentioned. If You include these two minor parties then You should include all other included in a table but for a better overview, I suggest that only those with significant support be included. Opatijac97 (talk) 12:16, 22 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
@Opatijac97 It does not look like they have some importance. It just shows home much percentage goes to all the other political parties, anyone who reads that grey stands for "Other" will immediately understand that. You said that you will answer on my own example but you have failed to do so. The graph is not the only source for the poll data. If someone wants to investigate further, they can look at the table below and try to analyze to which of the "other" political parties gained or lost support. Tuvixer (talk) 12:28, 22 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
@Tuvixer Putting "others" doesn't mean anything considering that it's still a dozen smaller parties whose results are combined. With some logic, you can then insert undecided as well as add DP, Most and Možemo to the others. The reason why these five parties are currently in the graph is because they have significant support, and the inclusion of "others" only confuses people because they have the impression that all these small parties together can achieve a significant result. The graph should simplify what is stated in the table, and not further complicate it by adding lines that do not represent the parties themselves. Opatijac97 (talk) 16:14, 22 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
@Opatijac97 you are repeating yourself with the same argument that makes no sense, and at the same time insulting other Wikipedia readers with insinuation that we are not intelligent enough to understand what "Other" political parties in a simple opinion poll graph means.
The specific political situation in Croatia is that there are currently 5 political parties with a constant above 5% support in the polls (combined they have only 66,5% in the last poll, and in Germany 6 major political parties have 91% combined). But there are at the same time 14 more political parties represented in the Croatian parliament (combined they have 17,2% in the last poll, and in Germany other have only 9% combined). That is also a reason why I think that a line for "other" political parties should be included in the graph. The graph data is incomplete without the data for "Other", and the most simple way is to put them all together. I also have nothing against adding a line for "Undecided". That line will give even more insight into the movement of political support over a longer period of time. Tuvixer (talk) 15:50, 23 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
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Opinion polling for the next Croatian parliamentary election[edit]
What is your method of calculating the average support of political parties in this graph?
HDZ for example has lost support in the last Ipsos poll but your graph presents it as an increase. That is an obvious mistake. Tuvixer (talk) 11:20, 27 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
So my method of calculating party support is as follows:
If you're comparing the two poll results for the HDZ, there's been a 3.6% increase in HDZ support, which is why the graph shows HDZ support increasing?
Then you have obviously made a mistake in calculating the re-weight vote.
In the Ipsos poll from 23 Dec 2022 the HDZ has 30.7%, and there are 17.7% undecided. Re-weighted the HDZ has 37.3%.
In the new Ipsos poll from 25 Jan 2023 the HDZ has 30.0%, and there are 16.5% undecided. Re-weighted the HDZ has 35.9%.
That is an decrease of 1.4% and not an increase.
It is now clear that the best course of action is to present the party support in the grap without recalculatin and removing the undecided. So please restore the table as it was.
Also I actually asked how do you calculate the average support of political parties in this graph? That means how do you calculate the numbers that we see represented as curves in the graph? Tuvixer (talk) 10:51, 29 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Hi Tuvixer,
I think you might be misreading the graph in that case, the HDZ reweighted points are 37.3% and 35.9% respectively for the ipsos polls. Don't forget that between the 2 Ipsos polls there was a 2x1 Komunikacije poll and Promocija plus poll that have lower values for the HDZ (I have circled the 2 Ipsos polls in the image attached below).
Also sorry for the misunderstanding, so the way the curves are calculated are by using LOESS regression in R which is better explained at the link below. Effectively for my graph of Croatia, it makes sure that the regression line accounts for the closest 4/5 points. Of course there is much more involved in the calculating of it and if you are interested, the wikipedia page for LOESS regression is actually very detailed!
I guess a more simple way of putting it is that instead of being an average of polls in the sense of a mean or moving average, it is more of a line that best fits the data points provided.
Hi, and thanks for making the image. Can you add a line at 50% to signify the threshold for second round? Thanks again, Betseg (talk) 14:51, 29 January 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Opinion polling for the next Croatian parliamentary election (again)[edit]
Hi,
so I didn't watched in graph for so long time, mostly because I would just add results. But Now I noticed some things.
1 Ključ Hrvatske (KH) is a a new name for Živi Zid (ŽZ), a party which participated in last election and won 2.26 in a coalition they lead
2 I'm not so much involved in statistics but I have noticed you reweighted points for the parties, so is that even correct to do or not. It looks misleading for someone who visits article and graph for first time. Opatijac97 (talk) 11:41, 9 July 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Hi Opatijac!
So the way I do my graphs is I remove the undecided votes and then re-calculate the vote as shown here:
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Thank you for your graphs on opinion polling. They are very helpful visualization of political situations. Unfortunately, there are some issues with your Japanese graph owing to some unique natures of Japanese politics.
The bar charts and the second graph that "removed the option 'None'" is misleading. The opinion polls in question are polling party identification, not voting intention. There is a substantial number of floating voters not loyal to any particular party. This doesn't mean you can simply deduct them from consideration as come elections they usually migrate to one of the opposition parties. This is why opposition parties always outperform their party identification polls. The current graph gives the impression that all non-LDP parties are decimated to single digits with the LDP cruising to a massive landslide. This cannot be further from the truth.
It'd be fabulous if you could remove the bar charts as well as the second graph.
Cheers! 沁水湾 (talk) 18:43, 14 December 2023 (UTC)[reply]
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